TOC Workbench

Theory vs Implementation Analysis

Scenario A: School Infrastructure Program

A program built toilets in 100 schools across rural Rajasthan. After one year:

• 95% of toilets were constructed to specification
• 80% had running water connections
• Only 40% were being regularly used
• Girl attendance improved in only 25% of schools

Questions:

1. Diagnose whether this is primarily theory or implementation failure
2. What additional data would confirm your diagnosis?
3. Design a study to test whether infrastructure → attendance link is valid
4. Propose theory modifications based on findings

Causal Pathway Mapping

Scenario B: Agricultural Extension via Mobile Phones

Design a Theory of Change for delivering agricultural advisory through mobile phones to smallholder farmers in Andhra Pradesh.

Context provided:

• 70% farmers have basic phones, 30% smartphones
• Literacy rate: 67%, digital literacy: 15%
• Major crops: Cotton, groundnut, chili
• Key challenges: Pest management, market prices, weather

Tasks:

1. Map at least 4 distinct causal pathways
2. Identify critical assumptions for each pathway
3. Design pathway-specific indicators
4. Anticipate 3 potential negative consequences
5. Propose risk mitigation strategies

Complex Systems ToC Development

Scenario C: Urban Slum Upgrading in Mumbai

Develop a comprehensive Theory of Change for a slum upgrading program that aims to improve living conditions through:

• Infrastructure improvements (water, sanitation, electricity)
• Land tenure security
• Community organization strengthening
• Livelihood support

Complexity factors:

• Multiple government agencies involved
• Informal power structures
• Mixed ownership patterns
• Diverse communities (linguistic, religious)
• High mobility and migration

Requirements:

1. Develop integrated ToC showing component interactions
2. Map feedback loops and potential system responses
3. Create tiered indicator system (output → outcome → impact)
4. Design adaptive management triggers
5. Specify contribution vs attribution approach
6. Address equity across different groups

Comprehensive Indicator Design

Scenario D: Adolescent Life Skills Program

Design a complete indicator framework for a program teaching life skills to adolescents (ages 14-18) in government schools in Uttar Pradesh.

Program components:

• Critical thinking and problem solving
• Communication and interpersonal skills
• Gender sensitivity and equality
• Career guidance and goal setting
• Health and wellness awareness

Develop indicators for:

1. Implementation quality (process)
2. Skill acquisition (immediate outcome)
3. Skill application (intermediate outcome)
4. Life trajectory changes (long-term impact)
5. Gender differential effects
6. Unintended consequences

Additional requirements:

• Specify measurement methods feasible in school settings
• Include both quantitative and qualitative indicators
• Design for attribution challenges (other influences on adolescents)
• Create practical data collection timeline

Urban Informal Settlements Upgrading

Context:

You're designing a comprehensive program for informal settlement upgrading in Bengaluru affecting 50,000 residents across 5 settlements. The program has four components:

• Infrastructure: Water, sanitation, electricity, roads
• Housing: In-situ upgradation support
• Livelihoods: Skills and enterprise development
• Governance: Community organizations and municipal interface

Complications:

• 60% residents are tenants, not owners
• Multiple competing community organizations exist
• High daily wage earners can't afford work disruption
• Previous efforts led to gentrification and displacement
• Municipal corporation has limited implementation capacity
• Land ownership is contested in 3 settlements

Your Tasks:

1. Develop integrated ToC showing component interactions and feedback loops
2. Identify minimum 5 critical assumptions that could derail the program
3. Design safeguards against gentrification and displacement
4. Create indicator framework that captures both intended benefits and potential harms
5. Develop adaptive management protocol for emerging challenges
6. Specify how you'll ensure tenant benefits alongside owners

Measuring Women's Empowerment in Conservative Contexts

Scenario:

You're evaluating a women's economic empowerment program in rural Rajasthan where:

• Direct questions about decision-making may not yield honest responses
• Women's mobility is severely restricted
• Male family members often present during surveys
• Economic gains might be appropriated by male family members
• Increased income could lead to reduced food allocation for women

Program Components:

• Skill training in traditional crafts with market linkages
• Group savings and credit
• Leadership development
• Male sensitization sessions

Design Challenge:

1. Develop creative measurement approaches that work around cultural constraints
2. Design proxy indicators for empowerment that can be observed/verified
3. Create data collection protocols ensuring women's safety and privacy
4. Develop methods to detect potential negative consequences
5. Build in validation approaches for self-reported data
6. Design participatory evaluation methods appropriate for low-literacy contexts

Digital Health in Tribal Areas

Context:

Develop a ToC for telemedicine services in tribal areas of Chhattisgarh where:

• Internet connectivity is sporadic (2G when available)
• Nearest PHC is 20-40 km away
• Traditional healers are primary health providers
• Language barriers exist (tribal languages, limited Hindi)
• High malnutrition and communicable disease burden
• Trust in outside systems is low

Available Resources:

• ASHA workers with basic smartphones
• Solar charging stations in some villages
• District hospital with specialist doctors
• Partnerships possible with local NGOs

Develop:

1. Realistic pathways from telemedicine to health outcomes
2. Integration approach with traditional healing systems
3. Technology design specifications based on constraints
4. Trust-building mechanisms
5. Sustainability model post-project funding
6. Quality assurance system for remote consultations

School-to-Work Transition for Youth with Disabilities

Challenge:

Design a ToC for improving employment outcomes for youth with disabilities (YWD) in urban India, addressing:

• Multiple disability types (physical, intellectual, sensory)
• Employer prejudices and workplace accessibility
• Family overprotection or shame
• Inadequate skill training infrastructure
• Policy implementation gaps despite legal mandates
• Intersectional challenges (gender, caste, poverty)

Stakeholders Include:

• Youth with disabilities and their families
• Special educators and mainstream schools
• Vocational training providers
• Employers (formal and informal sector)
• Disability rights organizations
• Government departments (education, labor, social justice)

Your ToC Must Address:

1. Different pathways for different disability types and severity
2. Demand-side (employer) and supply-side (YWD skills) interventions
3. Family engagement strategies that shift from protection to empowerment
4. Reasonable accommodation approaches for resource-constrained employers
5. Peer support and role model mechanisms
6. Metrics that capture quality of employment, not just placement

Reducing Child Marriage in High-Prevalence Districts

Context:

Design intervention for districts where 40%+ girls married before 18, considering:

• Economic drivers (dowry reduction for younger brides)
• Safety concerns (harassment, "family honor")
• Limited higher education access
• Intergenerational norm transmission
• Weak law enforcement
• Girls' limited agency in decisions

Failed Previous Approaches:

• Legal awareness campaigns (knowledge didn't change practice)
• Conditional cash transfers (families found workarounds)
• School retention programs (didn't address root causes)

Design Requirements:

1. Move beyond single-factor theories to address complex causation
2. Account for why families who "know better" still practice child marriage
3. Design for different archetypes (economic necessity vs. social norm vs. safety concern)
4. Include pathways for norm shift, not just individual behavior change
5. Address potential backlash and underground practices
6. Create indicators capturing process changes before outcome changes

Coastal Community Resilience in Sundarbans

Multiple Stressors:

• Sea level rise and land loss
• Increased cyclone intensity
• Salinity intrusion affecting agriculture
• Mangrove degradation
• Out-migration of working-age men
• Human-wildlife conflict (tigers)

Current Coping Strategies:

• Seasonal migration for work
• Shift to salinity-tolerant crops (limited success)
• Aquaculture (creating new vulnerabilities)
• Informal early warning systems

ToC Development Challenge:

1. Design interventions for "trapped populations" who can't migrate
2. Balance immediate survival with long-term sustainability
3. Address cascading risks (climate → economic → social → climate)
4. Include traditional knowledge while incorporating climate science
5. Create pathways for transformation, not just coping
6. Design for uncertainty—interventions robust across climate scenarios
7. Address loss and damage, not just adaptation

Improving Quality of Care in Public Health Facilities

Systemic Issues:

• Chronic understaffing and absenteeism
• Demotivated providers (low pay, poor conditions)
• Stock-outs of essential supplies
• Informal payments despite free services
• Poor infrastructure maintenance
• Lack of accountability mechanisms
• Political interference in transfers/postings

Patient Context:

• Low expectations of public services
• Limited ability to demand quality
• Preference for private providers despite cost
• Emergency care seeking only when critical

Design Comprehensive ToC Addressing:

1. Provider motivation beyond monetary incentives
2. Community accountability mechanisms that actually work
3. System changes vs. individual behavior changes
4. Political economy of health system reform
5. Patient empowerment in hierarchical contexts
6. Sustainable improvements vs. project-period gains
7. Measurement systems that capture care quality, not just utilization

Nutrition-Sensitive Agriculture

The Challenge:

Design ToC linking agricultural interventions to nutritional outcomes for tribal households in Jharkhand where:

• Rice mono-cropping dominates despite low nutritional diversity
• Kitchen gardens failed due to water scarcity and open grazing
• Market vegetables unaffordable and unavailable
• Traditional nutritious foods abandoned as "backward"
• Women's agricultural work increased but control over produce limited
• PDS provides calories but limited dietary diversity

Required Integration:

1. Agriculture practices that improve nutrition, not just income
2. Behavior change addressing food preferences and intra-household allocation
3. Market systems ensuring availability and affordability
4. Women's time burden and care practices
5. Seasonal hunger periods and coping strategies
6. Links with health systems for nutrition services
7. Indicators capturing dietary diversity, not just production